Asian Food Systems Threatened by Climate and Trade

In the Asia-Pacific region, food security remains a major challenge, with over 370 million people undernourished in 2022—half of the global total. Middle-income countries, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, face chronic local production shortages, heavy reliance on imports, and increased vulnerability to external shocks. Climate change is worsening this situation by multiplying droughts, floods, and heatwaves, thereby reducing agricultural productivity. At the same time, economic crises, such as food price inflation or trade disruptions, expose the fragility of global food networks.

A recent study analyzed the vulnerability of food systems in 23 countries in the region between 2000 and 2023. The findings show that the intensity of droughts and dependence on food imports are the main risk factors. Their interaction even amplifies this risk by nearly 40%, creating a vicious cycle that is difficult to break. For example, countries like Bangladesh or Pakistan see their vulnerability worsen sustainably after a climate shock due to their heavy reliance on imports.

Public investments in agriculture play a key role in reducing this vulnerability. A 10% increase in agricultural spending is associated with a 4.3% decrease in vulnerability over five years, with an even more pronounced impact in middle-income countries. These investments also mitigate the effects of droughts, absorbing about 28% of their negative impact. Conversely, excessive dependence on imports increases fragility, even in the wealthiest economies, as it exposes countries to global price fluctuations and monetary instability.

Without a change in direction, food vulnerability in the region could increase by 8.9% by 2030. However, integrated strategies combining investments in resilient agriculture, trade diversification, and inclusive development could reduce this vulnerability by 21.6%. These measures include increasing agricultural budgets, modernizing rural infrastructure, and targeted social protection, particularly for women. Low-income countries would benefit the most from an increase in public spending on agriculture, while more advanced economies should optimize these investments to adapt to climate change and strengthen regional trade agreements.

This approach shows that food security does not depend solely on local production or international trade, but on a combination of both. Countries must both strengthen their ability to produce enough and diversify their supply sources to limit risks. Simulations also indicate that investments in equity and access to resources, such as rural infrastructure or social protection, are not only fair but essential for building systemic resilience.

Source Mentions

Cited Publication

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-026-00639-3

Title: Vulnerability of agricultural food systems to climate and economic shocks: a hybrid machine learning and dynamic panel analysis of Asia-Pacific

Journal: Agriculture & Food Security

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Authors: Yudi Ferrianta; Nuri Dewi Yanti